SUMMARY

Jason Oppenheim, a veteran LA real estate broker from a five-generation family legacy, critiques California's policies, housing market challenges, and shares investment strategies amid high rates and regulations.

STATEMENTS

Jason Oppenheim's family has been in real estate for five generations in Los Angeles since the late 1800s.
The Oppenheim Group has achieved 4 to 5 billion in transaction volume with around 500 to 600 sales.
Real estate volume in major markets has hit historic lows not seen in 50 to 60 years due to high interest rates.
Prices in big Democratic cities like LA and New York have struggled post-COVID, while red-state cities like Miami have fared better due to low taxes and tough crime policies.
Los Angeles implemented the most draconian COVID policies, including being the last U.S. school district to reopen, leading to economic restrictions and population exodus.
Homelessness in LA exploded post-COVID, worsened by lax enforcement, and remains 40% higher than pre-2019 levels despite $24 billion spent over eight years.
The LA mansion tax imposes 5% on sales over $5 million and 6% over $10 million, regardless of profit, causing a 70% drop in luxury sales.
A UCLA study deemed the mansion tax a failure, raising only 20% of promised funds while costing $2 to $3 in lost economic activity per dollar gained.
Jason, a former attorney educated at UC Berkeley, now runs a brokerage with 100 agents across four offices in San Diego, Newport Beach, Los Angeles, and Cabo.
Jason admits bias toward high transaction volume but insists on honesty, advising against luxury buys in LA due to policy issues like homelessness and crime.
LA's homeless situation improved slightly from 2022 peaks but policies remain ineffective, with the problem 40-50% worse overall.
Jason has sold $3-5 billion in LA homes over 20 years and still considers it his favorite city for its weather, though he spends more time in Newport Beach.
Key declines in LA stem from lack of crime enforcement, elimination of cash bail, early prisoner releases, and lowest per capita police numbers in decades.
LA faces a billion-dollar budget deficit despite high taxes, as wealthy residents flee, reducing revenue.
Developers avoid multifamily construction in LA due to taxes and regulations, stifling economic activity and jobs.
Adding an ADU in LA promises high ROI but involves bureaucratic nightmares like unresponsive inspectors and redundant requirements.
Jason spent $70,000 on ADA compliance for his Newport Beach office, including parking lot repaving and automated doors, to avoid lawsuits.
LA requires low-income units in luxury buildings, like one for billionaires starting at $5 million, complicating sales and creating inefficiencies.
Rent control provides short-term relief but long-term harms supply and investment, increasing overall rents.
California has veered off track under one-party dominance lacking debate, but post-COVID mobility has forced policy reckonings.
In 2025, Jason advises renting over buying in overbuilt markets like Miami or Austin, expecting 10-30% price drops due to unlimited supply.
Jason invested $2 million in a leveraged 30-year Treasury ETF (TMF) for 4.5-5% yield plus appreciation if rates fall to 3.8%.
U.S. 30-year Treasuries yield 4.8-5%, far higher than China's 2% or Germany's 3.3%, making them a safe bet.
AI will cause deflation, unemployment in sectors like driving, and pressure the Fed to lower rates, enabling robot-based manufacturing.
Multifamily in LA is undervalued; a 20-unit Hollywood building sold for $1.4 million ($70,000/unit), ideal for future appreciation.
Tenant lawsuits in California often act as extortion, with 95% being money grabs settled to avoid $50-75k defense costs.
LA's new laws limit security deposits to one month even for furnished luxury homes and ban "just cause" evictions for sales.
Criminal history can no longer be used to screen tenants, and rejecting applicants from protected classes risks discrimination suits.
Jason's spending philosophy emphasizes using money for fun, travel, and others, viewing it as "fun coupons" to enhance life.
Optimal wealth allows continual upgrades without losing appreciation, around $100 million before private jets become unexciting.
Therapy transformed Jason from reactive and cortisol-driven to calm and present, via weekly sessions and daily self-reminders.
Billionaires differ little from intelligent, hardworking people; success is 75% right place, right time, not superior traits.
Positive reinforcement and turning mistakes into teachable moments motivate employees more than criticism.
Most Americans tolerate 9-5 jobs for stability, but entrepreneurs like Jason avoid them, creating cultures where work is enjoyable.
Creative financing like "sub-to" (subject-to) loans remains risky and ineffective for transferring equity without tax penalties or liability.

IDEAS

Real estate isn't in a bubble; it's deflating due to high rates and low volume, contradicting Twitter hype.
Democratic policies in big cities like LA's strict COVID measures and lax crime enforcement triggered population flight and economic stagnation.
Mansion taxes sound progressive but backfire by slashing luxury sales 70%, driving out wealth and reducing overall tax revenue.
Bureaucracy in LA turns simple projects like ADUs into ordeals with endless inspections and fees, deterring investment.
ADA compliance lawsuits target minor issues like parking slopes, forcing $70k+ spends on unused features rather than direct aid.
Requiring low-income units in billionaire condos subsidizes amenities for a few while devaluing the entire property by millions.
Rent control traps supply, benefiting short-term tenants but inflating long-term rents by discouraging new builds.
California's one-party rule stifles debate, leading to inefficient policies, but mobility post-COVID is forcing adaptation.
Overbuilt Sun Belt cities like Austin face sharp corrections due to endless land, unlike supply-constrained spots like Newport Beach.
Leveraged Treasuries offer dual benefits: steady yield plus bond price gains as rates drop, a macro bet on Fed easing.
AI-driven deflation from efficiency will eliminate jobs like trucking, pressuring rates lower and boosting manufacturing via robots.
Multifamily deals in regulated markets like LA yield cap rate compression; buy low now for 50% appreciation in three years.
Tenant protections have swung too far, enabling serial lawsuits and indefinite tenancies even in $30k/month luxury rentals.
Litigiousness acts as extortion; 95% of suits settle cheaply, but reforms like loser-pays attorney fees could deter frivolous claims.
Money as "fun coupons" encourages spending on experiences and others for multiplied joy, rather than hoarding.
Therapy reframes success as personal happiness, not just wealth, requiring consistent effort like gym workouts for the mind.
Billionaires aren't superhuman; replace half with smart, diligent people and outcomes might match, emphasizing timing over genius.
Positive office cultures prioritize specific compliments and teachable moments, making Mondays as appealing as weekends.
Sub-to financing tempts buyers with low rates but burdens sellers with hidden liabilities and tax hits on equity extraction.
Abundance spending builds networks through visible success, like spotting deals at high-end dinners, if affordable.
Optimal wealth sustains upgrades without desensitization; beyond $100M, luxuries like jets lose thrill due to overabundance.
Critical thinking shortages explain policy failures; doubling down on flawed ideas like rent control ignores evidence.
Housing "affordability crisis" is a myth; rent-to-wage ratios mirror 95 years, distorted by high-rate buying costs.
Reactive cortisol addiction fuels short-term hustle but erodes long-term well-being; calm handling resolves 99% of issues naturally.
AI therapy will surpass humans by analyzing full life data, providing unbiased, hyper-personalized conflict scripts.

INSIGHTS

Policies intended to aid the vulnerable, like mansion taxes or rent control, often exacerbate problems by reducing economic activity and supply.
Bureaucratic overreach in development creates friction costs that stifle innovation and efficiency, turning opportunities into nightmares.
Long-term real estate success favors supply-limited markets over speculative booms, where overbuilding leads to inevitable corrections.
Leveraged safe assets like Treasuries hedge recessions while capturing rate declines, blending security with upside in uncertain times.
AI's deflationary force will reshape labor, lowering rates and enabling cost-competitive automation, outpacing human wages globally.
Tenant rights excesses transform housing into a legal minefield, where protections for few undermine market stability for all.
Spending money on shared experiences multiplies happiness through utilitarian joy, far beyond solitary accumulation.
Therapy as mental gym builds resilience, shifting from reactive stress to proactive calm, redefining success as inner peace.
Wealth creation owes more to serendipitous timing than innate superiority, democratizing potential for the prepared.
Positive reinforcement in leadership fosters loyalty and growth, outstripping criticism in motivating sustained performance.
Perceived housing crises stem from misleading metrics ignoring wage correlations and dual-income households over generations.
Litigious environments impose hidden taxes via settlement fears, eroding trust and discouraging productive risks.
Abundance mindsets attract opportunities via networks, while scarcity breeds isolation and missed connections.
Critical thinking deficits in governance lead to dogmatic persistence, but external pressures like migration can catalyze change.
Money de-stresses when deployed for delegation and delight, freeing energy for higher pursuits over micromanagement.

QUOTES

"We've had arguably the worst 3 years ever in real estate."
"When any one party gets too much control, they veered off track."
"California's veered off track because it's been dominated too long by people that don't have any push back and there's really no debate."
"We spent $24 billion over the last 8 years and the problem's gotten about 40 to 50% worse."
"The mansion tax has been terrible... it's costing the city and the state in terms of taxation from the economic loss... about $2 to $3 for every dollar that it raises."
"LA is still my favorite city in the world... mostly because of the weather."
"A lack of crime enforcement... we have our lowest number of cops... in decades per capita."
"We have a billion dollar deficit which for a city is massive."
"You can't tax someone a dollar and lose a $150 in economic activity."
"Going through the city of Los Angeles has been an absolute nightmare."
"I would have preferred to put $70,000 into an account to help people get wheelchairs... as opposed to repaving a parking lot that was fine."
"Rent control does well in the short term... In the long term it hurts. It actually increases rents because it decreases supply."
"People are just very stuck in their ways and they don't... think critically, even though I think all the intentions are great."
"I'd probably rent for a while. I don't think real estate's probably going up."
"I'm putting it in 30-year Treasury bills."
"AI is deflationary and puts pressure on will put pressure on the Fed to lower rates."
"This is probably the best market that I've seen for a buyer to come into LA and buy multifamily."
"Lawsuits as extortion... 90 plus% of lawsuits. That's a problem with how litigious we are."
"Money is not doesn't do anything sitting in my bank. I am all about spending my money."
"Money doesn't guarantee happiness... Money definitely buys happiness though."

HABITS

Maintain a macro, simplistic view of markets to avoid overanalysis and capitalize on overreactions.
Invest opportunistically during crashes, like stock dips from tariffs or COVID, for quick recoveries.
Diversify into safe yields like Treasuries while betting on rate declines for leveraged gains.
Spend generously on friends and experiences, covering bills to multiply shared joy.
Upgrade lifestyle gradually to sustain appreciation, from basic cars to luxury over years.
Delegate mundane tasks via overstaffing, like assistants for packing or errands, to minimize stress.
Tip extravagantly, like $100 to valets, viewing it as utilitarian happiness for others.
Negotiate less on small costs, accepting minor overpays as tips to hardworking providers.
Read daily self-improvement notes on phone, like "don't sweat the small things," for mindset shifts.
Attend weekly therapy to process reactions and build calmer responses to triggers.
Use positive reinforcement at work, complimenting specifically and turning errors into lessons.
Volunteer consistently, like 15 years with Food on Foot, for hands-on community impact.
Analyze facts deeply, like via ChatGPT sessions on affordability, to counter headlines.
Travel frequently first-class with loved ones, prioritizing fun over accumulation.
Avoid 9-5 structures by building enjoyable work cultures that rival weekends.
Hedge portfolios with recession-proof assets to enable bolder spending without fear.
Reframe spending as partial costs, accounting for resale value in collectibles or cars.
Practice presence by not personalizing others' actions, reducing unnecessary stress.
Encourage family to spend, like urging mom to buy a Porsche after years of frugality.
Bet confidently on convictions, ignoring pundits, for high-risk, high-reward plays.

FACTS

LA spent $24 billion on homelessness over eight years, yet the issue worsened by 40-50%.
Mansion tax raised only 20% of projected funds, costing $2-3 in lost revenue per dollar.
Luxury sales over $5 million in LA dropped 70% post-mansion tax implementation.
Jason's brokerage completed 4-5 billion in transactions across 500-600 sales.
LA had the last U.S. school district to reopen post-COVID, with severe economic restrictions.
Homelessness in LA is now 40% higher than 2018-2019 levels.
LA faces a $1 billion budget deficit despite some of the nation's highest taxes.
A 20-unit Hollywood multifamily sold for $1.4 million, or $70,000 per unit.
U.S. 30-year Treasury yields 4.8-5%, exceeding China's 2% and Germany's 3.3%.
Rent-to-wage ratios for a 1,000 sq ft two-bedroom have mirrored inflation for 95 years.
600,000 people left LA post-COVID, equivalent to adding that many housing units per capita.
Jason turned $80k soccer cards into $275k profit, missing $700k by selling early.
Bitcoin rewards on Gemini card appreciated 277% on average for holders over one year.
LA's new DA is shifting enforcement, but police per capita is at decades-low.
AI could eliminate Uber drivers and truckers within five years.
98% of lawsuits settle, often for $20-30k to avoid $50-75k defense fees.
Multifamily in LA could appreciate 50% in three years from current lows.
Therapy takes consistent effort; Jason needed five years of weekly sessions to mellow.
15 million Americans possess intelligence and work ethic for billionaire potential.
Private jets require $200M+ net worth to justify without stress.

REFERENCES

Oppenheim Group real estate brokerage.
UC Berkeley for undergrad and law school.
Food on Foot volunteer organization.
UCLA public policy study on mansion tax.
LA Times articles on mansion tax failure.
Netsuite by Oracle AI cloud ERP.
Gemini Credit Card for Bitcoin rewards.
ZipRecruiter hiring platform.
Zocdoc app for doctor bookings.
TMF ETF for leveraged 30-year Treasuries.
Selling Sunset Netflix show.
Panini Prism Gold Messi and Ronaldo soccer cards.
White Glove Estates for remodels and AV design.
Pace Morby on creative financing and sub-to deals.
ChatGPT for affordability analysis and therapy scripts.
Trump tariffs and COVID market crashes.
Netflix stock at $200 share.
Ford GT car purchase.
Rolls-Royce Cullinan SUV.
Bentley as prior luxury vehicle.
Porsche for mom's upgrade.
Mercedes gifted to mom.
Jerry Jones oil investment in 1980s Texas.

HOW TO APPLY

Assess local policies before buying; avoid high-tax, overregulated areas like LA for luxury.
Research supply constraints; prioritize land-scarce markets like Newport Beach over buildable ones like Austin.
Calculate true affordability using rent-to-wage ratios, not just purchase prices amid high rates.
Rent strategically in 2025 if owning costs 50% more monthly, treating it as interest equivalent.
Invest in leveraged Treasuries for yield plus rate-drop gains, allocating 50% of portfolio as recession hedge.
Buy undervalued multifamily in litigious markets now, focusing on cap rate compression post-rate cuts.
Screen tenants only by employment and credit to dodge discrimination suits in California.
Offer cash-for-keys sparingly; document everything to avoid harassment claims or tenant reversals.
Display required notices like free legal services in common areas to enable evictions.
Limit security deposits to one month in LA, even for furnished high-end rentals.
Use positive reinforcement: compliment specifically and frame mistakes as growth opportunities.
Build a phone note list of daily mantras like "don't sweat small things" for mindset maintenance.
Attend weekly therapy to unpack reactions, scripting better responses via AI tools.
Delegate stresses: hire assistants for errands, contractors without haggling over minor sums.
Spend on shared experiences; cover group bills based on least financial impact.
Gradually upgrade possessions to maintain novelty, avoiding instant max luxury.
Tip generously on small services, viewing overpays as joy multipliers for recipients.
Analyze investments macro-style: ignore noise, bet on overreactions like market dips.
Volunteer hands-on with organizations like food banks for direct impact assessment.
Hedge portfolios diversely to sustain 3-4% annual spending without lifestyle drops.
Reframe collectible buys by resale potential, treating net loss as amortized fun.
Foster office cultures where employees look forward to Mondays via care and motivation.
Avoid creative financing traps; structure as leases if needed, but extract equity via lines of credit.

ONE-SENTENCE TAKEAWAY

Prioritize policy-aware, opportunistic real estate while using money to de-stress and foster shared happiness.

RECOMMENDATIONS

Avoid bubble narratives; focus on volume lows and rate impacts for grounded decisions.
Scrutinize local governance; flee one-party dominance lacking debate for balanced locales.
Oppose inefficient taxes like mansion levies; advocate studies proving revenue shortfalls.
Streamline bureaucracy; push for discretionary permitting in ADU and remodel processes.
Redirect ADA funds to direct aid like prosthetics over cosmetic compliance fixes.
Reform low-income mandates; fund separate housing over luxury integrations.
Phase out rent control gradually; incentivize supply growth to stabilize long-term rents.
Embrace mobility's leverage; use remote work to pressure inefficient states like California.
Target supply-limited enclaves; shun overbuilt Sun Belts for enduring appreciation.
Allocate to Treasuries now; capture yields before AI-fueled deflation lowers them.
Buy multifamily bargains; endure regulations for post-rate cap rate windfalls.
Tighten tenant laws; exempt luxury rentals from overprotections.
Impose loser-pays rules; curb 95% frivolous suits as legal extortion.
View money as fun coupons; spend boldly on experiences without kids' constraints.
Pursue therapy rigorously; treat it as mental gym for calmer success.
Credit timing over genius; prepare critically but don't idolize billionaires blindly.
Motivate via positivity; sandwich feedback to build eager teams.
Myth-bust affordability; compare adjusted rents to wages across eras.
De-stress via delegation; outsource hassles to reclaim life quality.
Build abundance networks; flash success subtly to draw opportunities.
Hedge against scarcity; diversify to enable fearless, joyful spending.

MEMO

Jason Oppenheim, scion of a five-generation Los Angeles real estate dynasty and founder of the Oppenheim Group, which has brokered $4 to $5 billion in sales, pulls no punches in dissecting the city's housing woes. From his perch in a Sunset Strip office—once a set for Netflix's Selling Sunset—he argues that California's real estate slump isn't a bubble but a policy-induced malaise. High interest rates have cratered transaction volumes to 50-year lows, yet he dismisses crash prophecies as Twitter-fueled folly. Blame, he says, lies with one-party rule: draconian COVID lockdowns, the nation's last school reopenings, and lax enforcement that swelled homelessness 40% despite $24 billion spent. Wealthy residents are voting with their feet, leaving a $1 billion city deficit in a high-tax haven.

Oppenheim, a former Berkeley-trained attorney turned centrist broker with 100 agents across four offices, admits his livelihood ties to market health but insists on candor. He loves LA's eternal sun but laments its faded vibrancy—pre-2019 optimism eroded by crime spikes, defunded policing, and no-cash-bail releases. The 2023 mansion tax, ostensibly to aid the homeless, slapped 5-6% fees on luxury sales, slashing them 70% and raising just 20% of promised funds. A liberal UCLA study called it a disaster, costing $2-3 in lost economic activity per dollar gained. Developers shun multifamily builds, plumbers idle, and ADU incentives devolve into inspector ghosting and $120,000 fire hydrant mandates—bureaucratic quicksand that turns promise into peril.

Deeper ills fester in overregulation. ADA lawsuits demand $70,000 parking repaves for phantom accessibility, while low-income quotas hobble billionaire towers, subsidizing free valets for lottery winners amid $15,000 monthly HOAs for owners. Rent control, he notes, props short-term affordability but starves supply long-term, hiking rents overall. Tenant laws border absurdity: no criminal history checks, one-month deposits on $30,000 furnished rentals, and indefinite stays post-lease, even for sales. Lawsuits, often 95% shakedowns, extort settlements to dodge $50,000 defenses—lawyer-lobbied friction that freezes investment. Yet multifamily screams opportunity: Hollywood 20-unit buildings at $70,000 apiece could double in value as rates fall.

For 2025, Oppenheim counsels renting in frothy spots like Miami or Austin, where unlimited land portends 10-30% drops, unlike Newport Beach's scarcity premium. He's betting $2 million on leveraged 30-year Treasuries for 5% yields plus appreciation as AI deflation pressures the Fed. Robots will gut driving jobs, enabling onshore manufacturing at robot wages—three human shifts sans unions or breaks. Housing "crises" are myths; rent-to-wage lines track 95 years, distorted by rate hikes, not scarcity. Post-600,000 exodus, LA has surplus per capita, yet homelessness persists as a complex beyond bricks.

Oppenheim's ethos transcends deals: money as "fun coupons" for travel, cars, and friends' delight, not bank hoards. Therapy tamed his cortisol rushes, fostering calm via daily mantras like "don't sweat small things." Billionaires, he demystifies, aren't outliers—75% right-place timing, replaceable by 15 million smart workers. Success? Intelligent steps, hard work, no entitlement. Shun creative financing gimmicks like sub-to loans; they trap sellers in liability without equity tax perks. In a litigious thicket, critical thinking—scarce as supply—offers the real edge, urging policy pivots before California's captive audience fully flees.

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Housing Expert: Do Not Buy A Home Until You’ve Watched This! | Jason Oppenheim