what did he know?

    Oct 12, 2025

    9541 symboles

    6 min de lecture

    SUMMARY

    Voidzilla host analyzes a suspicious $190 million crypto short trade timed perfectly with Trump's tariff announcements on China, highlighting apparent insider trading amid market crashes, alongside similar incidents in stocks and prediction markets.

    STATEMENTS

    • A trader deposited $80 million to short Bitcoin on October 9th at 16:39 GMT, followed by $30 million for Ethereum shorts at 3:49 GMT, betting on a market downturn.
    • Trump's Truth Social post at 14:57 GMT about calculating massive Chinese tariffs came hours after the shorts began, yet the trader continued adding positions without closing.
    • The trader placed additional Bitcoin shorts up to 20:49 GMT, exactly one minute before Trump's 20:50 GMT announcement of potential 100% tariffs on China, which tanked crypto markets.
    • Shorts on both Bitcoin and Ethereum closed just 30 minutes after the tariff announcement, yielding $190 million in profits over 24 hours from the same funded account.
    • This event exemplifies "crime is legal" dynamics in unregulated crypto, where non-security status shields such trades from traditional insider trading laws.
    • Similar suspicious trades occurred before an AMD-OpenAI partnership reveal, with out-of-the-money calls surging 300% post-announcement.
    • Prediction markets like Polymarket showed front-running of a Nobel Prize winner announcement, with odds shifting hours early based on insider knowledge.
    • Markets increasingly react to Trump's Truth Social posts on tariffs, turning preemptive knowledge of his announcements into profitable trading edges.

    IDEAS

    • Massive crypto shorts positioned hours before Trump's tariff threats suggest access to non-public policy information, blurring lines between legal betting and manipulation.
    • Continuing to add shorts after initial market dips, rather than cashing out, indicates precise foreknowledge of the escalation to 100% tariffs.
    • The one-minute gap between the final short and Trump's announcement points to sniper-like timing that defies random chance in volatile markets.
    • Crypto's non-security classification allows trades that mimic insider dealing without regulatory scrutiny, fostering a "wild west" environment.
    • Trump's Truth Social as a market mover elevates knowing his posts in advance to the ultimate alpha, replacing traditional tools like Bloomberg terminals.
    • Front-running extends beyond crypto to stocks, as seen in AMD calls bought just before OpenAI's stake reveal, yielding triple-digit gains.
    • Even prestigious events like Nobel Prize awards are vulnerable to insider bets on platforms like Polymarket, eroding trust in fair pricing.
    • Lax enforcement normalizes "if you can get away with it, do it" attitudes, where technical legality trumps ethical concerns in finance.
    • Tariff threats now dominate market volatility, making policy whispers more valuable than economic data for short-term profits.
    • The scale of $110 million initial bets underscores how whales can exploit information asymmetries without immediate repercussions.

    INSIGHTS

    • Foreknowledge of executive announcements like tariffs creates uneven playing fields, where a select few profit massively from public panic.
    • Regulatory gaps in crypto enable behaviors indistinguishable from securities fraud, undermining broader capital market integrity.
    • Social media posts from influential figures like Trump have supplanted formal channels as primary market catalysts, amplifying insider advantages.
    • Cross-asset patterns of preemptive trading—from crypto crashes to stock partnerships—reveal systemic vulnerabilities to leaks.
    • Prediction markets' efficiency ironically exposes insider meddling, as unnatural odds shifts betray hidden knowledge.
    • Normalizing such trades erodes public confidence, portraying finance as a game rigged for those with elite connections.

    QUOTES

    • "What did this guy know?"
    • "This is some of the most blatant crime is legal moments we've seen. $190 million."
    • "I think it's disgusting. I think it ruins capital markets and it's bad."
    • "The smartest thing to do is just know what Donald Trump's going to post on Truth Social ahead of time."
    • "Hey man, it might not be technically kosher, but if you can get away with it, you're probably fine."

    HABITS

    • Monitoring executive social media like Truth Social for real-time policy signals to anticipate market moves.
    • Accumulating large positions incrementally during market dips to maximize gains from expected downturns.
    • Analyzing options flow tools like Cheddarflow to spot unusual whale activity before news breaks.
    • Betting against overvalued assets in volatile sectors like crypto using short positions for downside protection.
    • Reviewing public announcements post-trade to confirm timing alignments without explicit admissions.

    FACTS

    • Crypto markets crashed significantly on October 9th following Trump's tariff threats on China over rare earth minerals.
    • The trader's $110 million total deposit funded shorts that profited $190 million in 24 hours amid the downturn.
    • AMD's partnership with OpenAI involved a 10% stake, revealed two trading days after suspicious $6 million call buys.
    • Polymarket odds for a Nobel Prize winner shifted hours before the official announcement, enabling early profits.
    • Trump's 20:50 GMT post on 100% potential tariffs on China directly preceded the closure of the profitable shorts 30 minutes later.

    REFERENCES

    • Trump's Truth Social posts on Chinese tariffs and rare earth disputes.
    • Cheddarflow tool for options analysis, highlighting AMD-OpenAI trades.
    • Polymarket prediction market front-running Nobel Prize outcome.
    • AMD-OpenAI partnership announcement.
    • Bloomberg terminals as outdated compared to social media monitoring.

    HOW TO APPLY

    • Track executive social media platforms like Truth Social for policy hints, depositing funds into trading accounts beforehand to position shorts.
    • Begin accumulating shorts on major assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum during stable periods, using at least $50 million to signal serious intent.
    • Monitor for initial market reactions to partial announcements, such as tariff calculations, and hold positions without closing to await escalations.
    • Place final bets precisely one minute before expected major reveals by aligning with known announcement patterns from insiders.
    • Close all positions within 30 minutes of the triggering event to lock in profits, ensuring account linkage for seamless execution across assets.

    ONE-SENTENCE TAKEAWAY

    Insider knowledge of policy tweets enables massive profits in unregulated markets, exposing finance's vulnerability to elite information leaks.

    RECOMMENDATIONS

    • Advocate for classifying major cryptos as securities to impose insider trading oversight and level the playing field.
    • Develop AI tools to detect anomalous trade timings against public announcements, flagging potential leaks for regulators.
    • Push platforms like Polymarket to implement stricter verification for high-stakes bets to curb front-running.
    • Educate retail traders on social media's role in volatility, encouraging diversified, long-term strategies over reactive shorts.
    • Urge lawmakers to monitor executive communications for market impact, requiring disclosure delays on sensitive topics.

    MEMO

    In the volatile world of cryptocurrency trading, a single tweet can unleash chaos—and fortunes. On October 9th, as markets braced for uncertainty, an anonymous trader executed shorts totaling $110 million against Bitcoin and Ethereum, betting boldly on an imminent crash. Hours earlier, at 16:39 GMT, $80 million flowed into an account to target Bitcoin; by 3:49 the next morning, another $30 million followed for Ethereum. This wasn't impulsive gambling but a calculated strike, unfolding against the backdrop of escalating U.S.-China tensions.

    The intrigue deepened when, at 14:57 GMT, President Trump posted on Truth Social about calculating "massive" tariffs on Chinese imports, tied to a rare earth minerals dispute. Markets dipped slightly, yet the trader didn't cash out. Instead, shorts intensified, with Bitcoin positions added until 20:49 GMT—one minute shy of Trump's bombshell at 20:50: a consideration of 100% tariffs on China. The crypto market plummeted, and within 30 minutes, the positions closed, netting $190 million in a day of carnage for everyone else.

    This episode, dissected by Voidzilla host in a rapid commentary, echoes broader suspicions of insider edges eroding fair play. "What did this guy know?" the host probes, noting the precision defies coincidence in non-regulated crypto, where Bitcoin and Ethereum evade securities laws. It's a "crime is legal" hallmark, he argues, where technical loopholes shield what looks like manipulation.

    The pattern extends beyond digital coins. Tools like Cheddarflow recently flagged $6 million in out-of-the-money AMD calls bought days before news of OpenAI's 10% stake in the chipmaker, surging 300% post-reveal. Even Polymarket, the prediction arena, saw odds front-run a Nobel Prize winner hours early, pocketing insiders tidy sums. From tariff threats to tech deals, markets hum to hidden rhythms.

    As Trump's posts increasingly dictate swings—tariffs now the "real alpha" over Bloomberg feeds—the host laments a system where "if you can get away with it, you're probably fine." No charges loom, he predicts, in an industry thriving on lax oversight. Yet the disgust is palpable: such trades poison trust, turning capital markets into playgrounds for the connected few.