SUMMARY

In a fireside chat at the Network State Conference 2025, Balaji Srinivasan interviews Arthur Hayes, BitMEX cofounder, on crypto's bull market persistence, central banks' gold pivot, his stem cell investments, and the superiority of code-based systems over legal ones.

STATEMENTS

Politicians worldwide promise expansive programs like free healthcare and full employment without mentioning tax increases, relying instead on massive money printing to fund them.
The global economy is at an 80-year turning point of massive change, where politicians suppress volatility through fiat printing until it inevitably explodes.
Investors should convert fiat earnings into Bitcoin, gold, or strong equities and relocate to stable jurisdictions like Singapore or Dubai to escape impending fiat turmoil.
Gold is becoming the reserve currency for nation-states, mirroring Bitcoin's role as the reserve for decentralized networks.
Central banks favor gold due to its 10,000-year history as an empire's currency, using it to safeguard national wealth despite logistical challenges in physical transport.
In the 20th century, restrictions on private gold ownership in capitalist nations like the US (1933-1974) and UK (until mid-1990s) suppressed gold prices to finance wars and failures.
Fiat currencies have enabled endless wars since governments detached from gold standards, unlike the 19th century when physical gold limited expenditures.
The Federal Reserve has not sold or allowed any bonds longer than 10 years to mature since 2020, indicating hidden quantitative easing disguised as maturity adjustments.
US tariffs signal a shift from rules-based international order to code-based systems like Bitcoin smart contracts, which offer greater reliability across borders.
Stablecoins function as a new banking license, enabling decentralized compliance, transfers, and accounting at minimal cost, poised to disrupt traditional banks.
Trump's debanking experience has motivated his support for stablecoins, viewing them as retaliation against establishment banks and a tool for financial disintermediation.

IDEAS

An 80-year economic cycle is underway, boomeranging global wealth back to Asia and elevating gold over treasuries as states' reserve asset.
Bitcoin and gold serve parallel roles: gold for physical nation-states, Bitcoin for digital networks, both hedging against fiat's inflationary excesses.
Private gold bans in the 20th century reveal how even capitalist societies manipulated markets to fund wars, a lesson echoed in Bitcoin's rise amid modern inflation.
Stem cell therapy represents a high-risk, high-reward pursuit of longevity, where early adopters like athletes push biological limits to feel perpetually youthful.
The Fed's refusal to offload long-term bonds exposes systemic fragility, with yield curve control masquerading as routine buybacks amid political denial.
Tariffs expose America's industrial weaknesses, like missile shortages in conflicts, forcing a reevaluation of its arms-dealer business model toward domestic production.
Code-based orders, such as Ethereum smart contracts, surpass local laws in reliability, enabling global, permissionless execution without costly litigation.
Stablecoins unbundle banks by turning payments into simple packets, valuing lean crypto firms like Tether far above bloated traditional giants like JP Morgan.
Debanking and denaturalization threaten identity and finance, but crypto offers defenses via Bitcoin for banking and ENS for self-sovereign identities.
National identity as a "lottery ticket of birth" fosters unearned tribalism, while crypto tribes demand active choice, forging stronger, merit-based bonds.
Network states could form like Indonesia's island archipelago but connected by internet, leveraging remote work, drones, and Bitcoin for nonviolent, decentralized governance.
Peaceful independence, as in India and Singapore, proves viable for new nations, especially against militarized threats like China's drone forces, emphasizing digital agility over armies.

INSIGHTS

Fiat printing sustains political promises but accelerates a volatility explosion, making hard assets like Bitcoin essential for preserving wealth across epochal shifts.
Historical gold restrictions highlight governments' willingness to erode property rights for war funding, underscoring why decentralized alternatives like Bitcoin thrive in inflationary eras.
Longevity pursuits via stem cells embody "no risk, no reward," where personal experimentation drives broader medical progress and affordability for all.
The Fed's bond-holding stasis reveals illusory tightening, signaling deeper debt crises that tariffs exacerbate by diminishing dollar utility in global trade.
Code's predictability over law's messiness extends from DeFi to identities, enabling unlocked, borderless systems that dismantle licensed monopolies like banks.
Birth-based identities yield to chosen crypto affiliations, transforming passive nationalism into active, resilient communities unbound by geography.

QUOTES

"Get your Bitcoin and get out because I think we're at a 80-year turning point."
"Gold is becoming the reserve currency of states and Bitcoin the reserve currency of the network."
"The code-based order is much more reliable than the local order."
"Stablecoins are a new banking license."
"People's attachment to the lottery ticket of birth."

HABITS

Arthur Hayes maintains an athletic lifestyle focused on skiing and tennis to stay physically active and challenge age-related slowdowns.
Hayes conducts thorough research before personal decisions like stem cell treatments, evaluating clinics and providers for safety and efficacy.
He invests time in learning from others' longevity approaches, staying informed on emerging treatments without committing to unproven methods.
Hayes reads newspapers and tracks politicians' statements to inform his macro views on global liquidity and economic cycles.
He prioritizes converting earnings into hard assets like Bitcoin or gold as a routine hedge against fiat devaluation.

FACTS

Central banks restricted private gold ownership in the US from 1933 to 1974 and in the UK until the mid-1990s to suppress inflation tied to war costs.
The Federal Reserve has held constant its 10-year Treasury bonds since 2020, refusing to sell or let them mature despite claims of quantitative tightening.
Tether, with 150 employees, achieves a half-trillion-dollar valuation, contrasting JP Morgan's 315,000 employees for similar banking functions.
Trump, a lifelong New Yorker and establishment figure, was debanked by major banks, influencing his pro-stablecoin stance.
Indonesia operates as a nation of islands separated by ocean, paralleling potential internet-connected network states.

REFERENCES

BitMEX (cofounded by Arthur Hayes).
Maelstrom (Hayes' venture).
Veritas (stem cell clinic where Hayes invests and serves on the board).
Brian Johnson (longevity pioneer).
Brian Armstrong (Coinbase CEO interested in longevity).
CZ (Binance founder involved in longevity).
John Law (historical figure behind France's fiat experiment).
FDR (US President who banned private gold in 1933).
Elon Musk (advocate for Mars colonization).
Sam Altman (pursuing superintelligence).
Tether and Circle (stablecoin issuers).
ENS (Ethereum Name Service for crypto identities).

HOW TO APPLY

Monitor politicians' promises of expansive programs without tax hikes, anticipating money printing and converting personal fiat holdings to Bitcoin or gold promptly.
Research stem cell clinics rigorously, prioritizing safety and efficacy before undergoing treatments, and consider investing in promising providers for long-term involvement.
Analyze central bank balance sheets for hidden easing signals, like unchanged long-term bond holdings, to inform investment strategies avoiding overreliance on fiat assets.
Evaluate business jurisdictions beyond Delaware, favoring code-based structures for crypto operations to minimize legal entanglements and costs.
Adopt crypto identities via platforms like ENS to safeguard against debanking or denaturalization, building self-sovereign alternatives to birth-based nationality.
Explore stablecoin integrations for personal finance, using them for low-cost transfers and accounting to bypass traditional bank fees and restrictions.

ONE-SENTENCE TAKEAWAY

Convert fiat to Bitcoin, embrace code over law, and pursue longevity to thrive amid fiat's collapse and network states' rise.

RECOMMENDATIONS

Relocate to fiat-stable havens like Singapore or Dubai to shield assets from global money-printing induced turmoil.
Invest in stem cell therapies early as an athlete or high-achiever to extend peak physical performance indefinitely.
Prioritize code-based financial tools like stablecoins over banks to achieve unlocked, global transactions without political interference.
Shift identity from birth lottery to chosen crypto tribes for stronger, agency-driven community bonds.
Advocate nonviolent, decentralized governance models inspired by Bitcoin to build resilient network states against militarized threats.

MEMO

In the sunlit halls of the Network State Conference 2025, Balaji Srinivasan sat down with Arthur Hayes, the billionaire cofounder of BitMEX and Maelstrom, for a fireside chat that dissected the fragile threads of global finance. Hayes, ever the macro provocateur, dismissed the notion of a crypto bull market's end, pointing instead to politicians' endless promises of bombs, free healthcare, and jobs—none funded by taxes, but by rivers of printed money. "Get your Bitcoin and get out," he urged, echoing his past mantra, as an 80-year cycle of upheaval loomed, boomeranging wealth toward Asia and pitting gold against treasuries in the contest for reserve supremacy.

Hayes, a self-described athlete hooked on skiing and tennis, revealed his pivot to longevity, investing in Thailand's Veritas clinic after personal stem cell infusions. No stranger to risk—"no planes, no plane crashes"—he envisions democratizing these therapies, much like Bitcoin scaled from niche to necessity. Central banks, he noted, cling to gold's 10,000-year pedigree, buying it to armor national wealth, even as historical bans in the U.S. and U.K. exposed fiat's wartime deceptions. The 20th century's gold shackles enabled perpetual wars; now, Bitcoin counters that infinite printing with unyielding scarcity.

Delving into the Federal Reserve's sleight of hand, Hayes highlighted its refusal to shed bonds longer than 10 years since 2020—a stealth quantitative easing amid bluster about tightness. Tariffs, he argued, underscore America's arms-dealer facade crumbling under missile shortages in Ukraine and Iran, signaling scarcity beneath the bravado. Yet Trump’s debanking saga flips the script, birthing stablecoin fervor as retaliation against Wall Street. These digital dollars, Hayes and Srinivasan agreed, are nascent banking licenses, unbundling behemoths like JP Morgan—315,000 souls strong—while Tether's lean 150-employee machine claims half a trillion in value.

The conversation elevated code over capricious law: Bitcoin's smart contracts outshine Delaware's fictions, reliable across borders without courtroom quagmires. Identities, too, evolve—from birth's unearned lottery to crypto's chosen tribes, fortified by ENS against denaturalization's specter. Srinivasan mused on network states as internet-archipelagos, à la Indonesia but drone-linked and Bitcoin-backed, pursuing nonviolent independence like India or Singapore. No armies needed; digital agility trumps Stalin's divisions.

As applause faded, Hayes' worldview crystallized: fiat's explosion is inevitable, but code's order endures. For the forward-thinker, it's simple—hedge with hard assets, hack biology's code, and code your sovereignty anew. In this shifting epoch, survival demands not just prediction, but bold reinvention.