Концепция "Зон извлечения прибыли" / Зная ЭТО, не прогоришь никогда + 5 "мертвых" ниш

SUMMARY

Ilya Balakhmin, head of PayPerPL agency, analyzes dying markets using Porter's Five Forces, identifying five niches—distributors, marketplaces, clothing resellers, IT outsourcing, and skill-based infobusiness—facing collapse due to shifting profit zones.

STATEMENTS

• Markets and niches evolve like a park defined by price and value dimensions, where companies position themselves amid competitive pressures.
• Porter's Five Forces—competitors, suppliers, buyers, substitutes, and new entrants—cause market turbulence, moving the zone of profit extraction dynamically.
• Companies must anticipate and follow the migration of profit zones to avoid obsolescence, as inertia prevents quick adaptation.
• Distributors are declining as manufacturers build direct sales channels to capture higher margins, bypassing intermediaries.
• Marketplaces will evolve into niche platforms or monobrand stores, squeezing out third-party sellers who should seek specialized alternatives.
• Instagram-based branded clothing stores, often resellers of cheap Chinese imports, will fail as marketplaces consolidate and expose their model.
• Custom software development and mid-level IT outsourcing are threatened by AI tools like Cursor and an oversupply of specialists recycled among agencies.
• Skill-based infobusiness teaching professions online is collapsing because true professional mastery cannot be acquired through courses alone.
• Successful adaptation requires calculating market forces to predict if a niche's profit zone has migrated too far, using tools like Porter's model.
• Businesses ignoring profit zone shifts, like floppy disk companies failing to adapt to CDs, face inevitable death.

IDEAS

• Floppy disk manufacturers earned billions but all perished because they couldn't adapt to the CD revolution, showing how niches die with companies.
• Markets can be visualized as a park with price and value axes, where competitors scatter diagonally in mature sectors but chaotically in wild ones.
• Price dumping by one player triggers a chain reaction of market-wide reductions, benefiting consumers while eroding profits for all.
• Suppliers and buyers exert constant pressure: suppliers push for higher volumes at premium prices, while buyers demand endless discounts.
• Startups and capital-backed entrants continually erode established market shares, making vigilance essential.
• The profit extraction zone acts like a moving hill in the park, requiring companies to forecast and relocate preemptively or use barriers like patents.
• In distribution chains, manufacturers increasingly sell directly to consumers at slight premiums, questioning the need for middlemen entirely.
• Marketplaces boomed as cheap bypasses for distributors but now suffocate sellers with razor-thin margins, foretelling their transformation.
• Reverse image searches reveal most trendy Instagram clothing shops as mere resellers of identical, cheaper Chinese goods from marketplaces.
• AI coding tools and specialist oversupply turn IT outsourcing into a talent-recruiting racket, where agencies profit from reselling the same developers.
• Infobusiness thrives on evergreen human concerns like health but crumbles when promising quick mastery of complex professions.
• Professions resist commodification via online courses, echoing Hašek's idea that they are conspiracies against the uninitiated.

INSIGHTS

• Rigid market structures amplify the destructive power of Porter's forces, turning incremental changes into existential threats for non-adaptive firms.
• The illusion of stability in niches masks the relentless migration of profit zones, driven by technology and competition, demanding proactive reconfiguration.
• Direct-to-consumer shifts dismantle intermediary layers, revealing how profit extraction favors control over distribution rather than facilitation.
• Overspecialization in commoditized services, like IT freelancing, invites automation and saturation, underscoring the need for proprietary innovation.
• Consumer empowerment through transparency tools exposes fraudulent resale models, accelerating the collapse of deceptive retail facades.
• Educational infobusiness misfires by overpromising skill acquisition, highlighting that true expertise demands experiential depth beyond digital delivery.

QUOTES

• "Ни одна компания, которая заработала миллионы, а может быть, даже миллиарды на флопиках, не смогла адаптироваться к взрывному росту сегмента сидерсидер в болванок."
• "Зона извлечения прибыли - это то место, на котором рынок, внимание, разрешает нашей компании получать прибыль."
• "Если мой завод производит по 8 руб., продаёт дистрибьютору за 10, дистрибьютор наценивает 11, потом продаёт дилеру, который продаёт за 12, розничатому клиенту, то рано или поздно завод задастся очень простым вопросом: 'Почему бы мне не продавать розничному клиенту за 11,5?'"
• "Умрут маркетплейсы. Да, да, да, и ещё раз нахрен."
• "Любая профессия, как говорил, кстати, знаменитый писатель Гашек, заговор против профанов."

HABITS

• Regularly apply Porter's Five Forces model to assess and forecast market dynamics in your niche.
• Monitor supplier and buyer pressures to anticipate margin erosion early.
• Conduct reverse image searches on competitors' products to uncover resale schemes.
• Invest in proprietary tools or AI to replace commoditized services.
• Evaluate infobusiness viability by distinguishing conceptual advice from unattainable skill promises.

FACTS

• All major floppy disk companies that generated billions collapsed without adapting to CDs.
• Miratorg, once exclusive to third-party stores, now operates its own retail and briefly tried e-commerce.
• Yandex Marketplace now sells products under its own brand, like cakes and air conditioners.
• IT specialists are often recycled across 10-15 outsourcing firms, inflating agency recruitment models.
• Skill-based online courses fail to produce professionals, as professions inherently resist superficial learning.

REFERENCES

• Porter's Five Forces model for market analysis.
• Telegram bot template for calculating five market forces.
• Data-Driven Marketing course as a giveaway prize.
• Cursor AI code editor for software development.
• Jaroslav Hašek's writings on professions as conspiracies against amateurs.

HOW TO APPLY

• Visualize your market as a price-value grid, plotting competitors to identify the current profit extraction zone.
• Assess Porter's forces: evaluate rival intensity, supplier bargaining power, buyer demands, substitute threats, and entry barriers.
• Forecast zone migration by tracking technological shifts, like AI in IT or direct sales in distribution.
• For distributors, seek production capabilities or contract manufacturing in low-cost regions like China.
• For marketplaces, pivot to niche platforms if small, or negotiate as a large supplier for monobrand integration.
• In clothing resale, develop unique designs with in-house designers to differentiate from imports.
• In IT outsourcing, shift from reselling talent to building proprietary software products.
• For infobusiness, focus on advisory topics like health routines rather than promising professional training.
• Use analysis templates to calculate if your niche's profit zone has drifted too far, deciding on adaptation or exit.
• Engage in scenario planning: predict 1-2 evolutions of your market's profit zone based on forces.

ONE-SENTENCE TAKEAWAY

Adapt swiftly to migrating profit zones via Porter's model to evade dying niches like distributors and marketplaces.

RECOMMENDATIONS

• Calculate Porter's forces for your niche to preempt profit zone shifts and avoid obsolescence.
• Build direct-to-consumer channels to bypass declining intermediaries like distributors.
• Transition marketplaces to niches or proprietary production before monobrand takeovers dominate.
• Innovate unique products in resale-heavy sectors to outlast commoditized competition.
• Abandon skill-teaching infobusiness, pivoting to evergreen conceptual advice instead.

MEMO

In a world where business landscapes shift like sand dunes, Ilya Balakhmin, the sharp-eyed leader of PayPerPL agency, warns of impending market extinctions. Drawing from the dusty annals of tech history, he recalls how floppy disk empires crumbled under the CD onslaught—not from scarcity, but from failure to evolve. Balakhmin invokes Michael Porter's timeless Five Forces model to dissect why certain niches teeter on the brink: rivals slashing prices, suppliers squeezing margins, buyers demanding bargains, substitutes innovating ruthlessly, and newcomers crashing the gate. These forces propel what he calls the "zone of profit extraction"—a metaphorical hill in a volatile park of price and value—constantly migrating, leaving inert companies in the dust.

Balakhmin's dissection begins with distributors, the unglamorous middlemen ferrying goods from factories to shelves. Once indispensable, they now face existential siege as manufacturers eye direct sales. Why split slim profits when a factory can sell to consumers at a tidy premium? Take Miratorg, the Russian meat giant: it leaped from third-party reliance to its own stores, even flirting with e-commerce before a hasty retreat. For survivors, Balakhmin advises allying with Chinese contract manufacturers or launching private labels—anything to reclaim the value chain's helm.

The carnage extends to marketplaces, those digital bazaars that exploded as manufacturer shortcuts around distributors. Wildberries and its ilk lured sellers with ease, but now margins evaporate amid cutthroat fees. Balakhmin predicts a bifurcation: niche havens like Flow for gifts or Lamoda for beauty, or a grim pivot to monobrands, where platforms devour vendors by slapping their labels on everything from cakes to chairs. Yandex's creep into branded air conditioners signals the trend; small sellers must flee to specialized corners or risk becoming footnotes in corporate empires.

Even Instagram's parade of trendy clothing boutiques, peddling "exclusive" fashion, unravels under scrutiny. A simple reverse image search exposes them as resellers of bargain-bin Chinese imports, twice the price on social media. As marketplaces consolidate, these facades will shatter. Balakhmin urges authenticity: hire designers, craft unique patterns—though he concedes the odds favor reinvention's pioneers over copycats.

Turning to tech, the IT outsourcing boom sours amid AI's rise and talent glut. Mid-tier developers, once golden geese, now flood agencies that resell them like commodities across 15 firms. Tools like Cursor AI eclipse rote coding, gutting custom projects. Balakhmin laments how specialists birthed their own assassins; agencies should forge original software, not chase outsourced gigs.

Finally, infobusiness—those promise-laden courses—falters on professional training's illusion. Eternal quests like health hacks endure, but claims of instant mastery in medicine or trades collapse; Jaroslav Hašek's quip that professions conspire against amateurs rings true. Balakhmin's verdict: pivot to conceptual wisdom or perish. Armed with a Telegram template for Porter's calculus, entrepreneurs can chart escapes from these traps, mirroring the visionaries who thrive by chasing the profit hill's elusive crest.