SUMMARY

Pita Limjaroenrat, Thailand's prominent political figure, delivers the 2025 State of Asia Address in Zurich, outlining Asia's post-hegemonic future amid great power rivalry, economic shifts, and security challenges.

STATEMENTS

• Asia stands at an inflection point similar to 1946, when the post-World War II order transitioned amid crumbling empires and emerging superpowers.
• The post-Cold War era of globalization and liberal democracy is fraying, with Europe rebuilt from ruins while Asia builds order from rivalry.
• Europe integrated out of exhaustion with American aid, whereas Asia seeks integration amid expansion and American tariffs affecting global trade.
• Asia's next chapter on power emphasizes connection over confrontation in a post-hegemonic world, navigating fragile stability from U.S.-China meetings.
• Historical precedents like the 1955 Bandung Conference show Asian leaders forming non-aligned movements for strategic autonomy.
• Future power will arise from a network architecture of trust via minilateralism—small, flexible coalitions addressing specific issues—for decentralized stability.
• Middle powers can weave geopolitical fabric, turning great power fatigue into relevant regional initiatives focused on people's needs.
• Asia's progress shifts from being the world's factory, reliant on scale and labor, to the world's laboratory amid automation and trade fragmentation.
• A two-speed Asia emerges: Northeast Asia managing maturity in economy and demographics, while South and Southeast Asia drive momentum through youth and connectivity.
• South and Southeast Asia will account for 30% of global growth next year, shifting convergence from East-West to vertical North-South dynamics within Asia.
• Synergizing North Asia's technology and capital with South and Southeast Asia's demographics requires streamlined education, transportation, and knowledge transfer.
• Asia's peace chapter involves designing stability through guardrails, rules, and institutional spaces to manage flashpoints like Taiwan and South China Sea.
• Guardrails include 24-hour communication hotlines and de-escalation processes to prevent accidents from escalating into incidents.
• Rules must clarify gray-zone tactics like cyber attacks and drones via revised codes of conduct to avert conflicts.
• Institutional rooms allow rivals to de-escalate without losing face, beyond mere forums like ASEAN Regional Forum.
• Neutrality in Asia is a capability built on diversified economies, enabling resilience against great power pressures.
• Minilateralism enables countries like India and Indonesia to join multiple coalitions without choosing sides.
• Asia scales solutions to global challenges like climate change and AI, often originating from great powers but implemented at Asian scale.
• Convergence between North and South Asia could equalize GDPs by 2040, driven by 5%+ growth in developing regions.
• American tariffs introduce volatility and unpredictability, impacting supply chains more than magnitude, especially export-reliant sectors.
• Democratic backsliding in ASEAN features dynasty politics and proxy leadership, treating governance as family business.
• Europe serves as a regulatory superpower, offering Asia synergies in green financing, pharmaceuticals, and AI ethics.

IDEAS

• Parallels between 1946 Europe's ruins and today's Asia's rivalries highlight an interregnum demanding new visions for power, progress, and peace.
• Fragile U.S.-China de-escalations provide tactical breathing space but underscore the need for Asian-led strategic autonomy beyond non-alignment.
• Minilateralism as a web of nodes replaces rigid bipolarity, allowing middle powers to stabilize polarization through flexible coalitions.
• Asia's economic model exhaustion from labor-intensive exports signals a pivot to innovation-driven laboratories leveraging demographic dividends.
• Vertical convergence within Asia—from Chennai to Ho Chi Minh City catching Shanghai—redefines global growth centers southward.
• Demographic gaps, with South/Southeast Asia at average working age 32 versus North Asia's 50, offer synergy opportunities before dividends expire.
• Peace requires proactive design: guardrails for communication, rules for gray-zone warfare, and spaces for rivals to retreat gracefully.
• Neutrality evolves from a mere position to a resilient capability, built on diversified trade and domestic economies to avoid great power traps.
• Asia as a scaling ground for global solutions—demographics, demand, and digitization amplify innovations from elsewhere.
• FDI into ASEAN surpassing China for the first time marks a shift in investment gravity toward Southeast Asia's connectivity.
• Dynasty politics in ASEAN turns democracy into inherited assets, hindering agile leadership amid rapid global volatilities.
• Europe's regulatory strengths in AI ethics and carbon pricing complement Asia's speed, fostering diversified tech partnerships.
• Unpredictability from tariffs creates hoarding and inventory risks, disrupting supply chains more than actual trade volumes.
• Institutional forums like East Asia Summit host tensions but fail to contain them, needing evolution into de-escalation arenas.
• Global growth's 52% from developing Asia, excluding advanced economies, signals historic southward momentum in progress.

INSIGHTS

• In a post-hegemonic vacuum, middle powers' minilateral networks can transform rivalry fatigue into connective stability, reweaving global polarization.
• Asia's shift from factory to laboratory demands vertical synergies, pairing northern expertise with southern youth to sustain demographic advantages before they wane.
• Designing peace through guardrails, rules, and institutional retreats prevents misjudged escalations in a region where technology accelerates conflicts.
• Neutrality as capability, rooted in economic diversification, empowers Asia to navigate U.S.-China pulls without forced alignments.
• Two-speed Asia's convergence could equalize prosperity by 2040, but requires inclusive policies to ensure growth benefits beyond elites.
• Volatility from geopolitical tariffs impacts anticipation and supply chains more profoundly than direct trade losses, urging precision diversification.
• Democratic backsliding via dynastic proxies erodes governance agility, contrasting with needs for independent leadership in volatile times.
• Asia's scaling role in global challenges amplifies external innovations, but true progress lies in endogenous solutions via value-chain ascent.
• Europe's regulatory prowess offers Asia a counterbalance to U.S.-China tech dominance, enabling ethical and sustainable advancements.
• Historical interregnums like 1946 teach that proactive architecture—networks over empires—defines enduring orders in transitional eras.
• Institutional evolution from talk-shops to containment spaces is essential for Asia to host and harness tensions productively.

QUOTES

• "Asia's next chapter on power will be about connection over confrontation."
• "The next chapter of Asia will not return to the non-aligned movement, but go beyond that to what I call the network architecture of trust."
• "Asia's next chapter will be about the transformation from being the world's factory to the world's laboratory."
• "Asia is not at war nor is it at peace."
• "Designing for peace rather than hoping for peace."
• "Neutrality is a capability because you have domestic economy you have diversified enough so that you have that kind of capability to be able to withstand."
• "Europe provides the rules and Asia scales the tools."
• "The great convergence is going to be vertical. The south and southeast Asia from Chennai to Ho Chi Minh City is catching up with Shanghai and Tokyo."
• "Dynasty politics and proxy leadership... think of democracy as a family asset as a family business."

HABITS

• Diversify trade portfolios across multiple markets and coalitions to build economic resilience against great power volatilities.
• Invest in domestic consumption and economies to enhance neutrality as a strategic capability rather than passive positioning.
• Form small, flexible minilateral groups for targeted issue-solving, fostering action-oriented cooperation over broad alliances.
• Streamline education and knowledge transfer systems to synergize demographic dividends with technological expertise.
• Establish routine communication protocols, like 24-hour hotlines, to de-escalate potential incidents proactively.
• Monitor and respond to tariff unpredictabilities with precise, case-by-case diversification in export-dependent sectors.
• Engage in cross-continental partnerships, such as with European regulators, to balance fast innovation with ethical governance.

FACTS

• South and Southeast Asia will drive 30% of global growth next year, shifting economic gravity southward.
• Average working age in South and Southeast Asia is 32, compared to 50 in North Asia, creating a 20-year demographic gap.
• Foreign direct investment into ASEAN exceeded that into China for the first time last year.
• Developing Asia (excluding advanced economies like Japan and Singapore) will account for 52% of global growth.
• American trade constitutes less than 20% of total Asian trade, limiting tariff impacts to volatility rather than magnitude.
• In 1955, 29 newly independent nations met in Bandung, Indonesia, to form the Non-Aligned Movement.
• By 2040, South and Southeast Asia's GDPs could equalize with North Asia's if current growth trends persist.

REFERENCES

• Winston Churchill's 1946 Zurich speech on the United States of Europe.
• 1955 Bandung Conference in Indonesia.
• Recent U.S.-China summit in Busan.
• Marshall Plan for European reconstruction.
• ASEAN Regional Forum and East Asia Summit.
• Quad and I2U2 coalitions involving India.
• OECD and RCEP trade agreements for Indonesia.
• Asia Society Switzerland and University of Zurich as hosts.
• UBS Foundation professor Ralph Ossa as moderator.
• Examples of dynasty politics: Marcos in Philippines, Jokowi-Gibran in Indonesia, Hun family in Cambodia.
• Bush family in U.S., Abe family in Japan, Trudeau in Canada.
• Carbon pricing, green financing, and pharmaceutical sectors in Europe.
• AI safety and ethics discussions.

HOW TO APPLY

• Assess your economy's diversification: Evaluate reliance on single markets or powers, then build domestic consumption to foster resilience and neutrality.
• Form minilateral coalitions: Identify 3-5 partners for specific issues like trade or climate, creating flexible networks to address challenges without broad alignments.
• Synergize demographics and tech: Partner northern expertise with southern youth through joint education programs and knowledge transfers to accelerate innovation.
• Install communication guardrails: Set up hotlines and real-time protocols with neighbors to prevent accidents from escalating in tense regions.
• Develop rules for gray zones: Collaborate on codes of conduct for cyber, drone, and maritime tactics to clarify boundaries and reduce conflict risks.
• Create institutional spaces: Evolve forums into de-escalation venues where rivals can negotiate retreats without face loss, hosting ongoing dialogues.
• Diversify against tariffs: Analyze export sectors case-by-case, redirecting to alternative markets like Europe or Japan to mitigate volatility.

ONE-SENTENCE TAKEAWAY

Asia's future thrives through connective networks, innovative laboratories, and designed peace amid post-hegemonic transitions.

RECOMMENDATIONS

• Prioritize minilateralism to build trust networks that bridge great power divides and stabilize regional issues.
• Invest in vertical synergies between North and South Asia to harness demographic dividends for inclusive growth.
• Establish proactive guardrails like hotlines to design peace and contain flashpoints before escalation.
• Diversify economies beyond exports, emphasizing domestic resilience to navigate tariff volatilities effectively.
• Partner with Europe's regulators on AI ethics and green finance to balance Asia's scaling speed with sustainable governance.
• Combat democratic backsliding by promoting independent leadership over dynastic proxies for agile decision-making.
• Shift from factory scaling to laboratory innovation, focusing on endogenous solutions for global challenges like climate and poverty.
• Monitor two-speed Asia's convergence, ensuring education and infrastructure streamline knowledge flows southward.

MEMO

In the historic halls of the University of Zurich, where Winston Churchill once envisioned a united Europe in 1946, Thailand's Pita Limjaroenrat addressed Asia's precarious crossroads on November 5, 2025. As a leading voice of Southeast Asia's emerging political generation, Limjaroenrat drew stark parallels between post-World War II Europe's ruins and today's fraying post-Cold War order. With globalization unraveling and liberal democracy under strain, Asia grapples with rivalry rather than rubble, seeking integration amid expansion while facing American tariffs that ripple from Switzerland to Shanghai. Moderated by economist Ralph Ossa, the discussion underscored an interregnum demanding bold hypotheses on power, progress, and peace.

Limjaroenrat envisioned Asia's power chapter as connection over confrontation, evolving beyond the 1955 Bandung Conference's non-aligned movement into a "network architecture of trust." In a post-hegemonic world, middle powers like Indonesia and India emerge as connective tissue, weaving minilateral webs—decentralized, action-oriented coalitions—to counter U.S.-China polarization. Recent Busan summits offered tactical de-escalations, postponing tariffs on soybeans and TikTok, but fragile stability demands strategic autonomy. Neutrality, reframed as a capability born of diversified economies, allows resilience against great power chess games, turning fatigue into relevant regional initiatives that prioritize people over poles.

Progress, Limjaroenrat argued, hinges on transforming Asia from the world's factory—once lifting millions from poverty through 40% of global production—to its laboratory. Automation and fragmented trade expose limits of labor-driven scale, revealing a two-speed continent: mature Northeast Asia idling at low growth, while vibrant South and Southeast Asia accelerates with 30% of next year's global expansion. Vertical convergence looms, with youth-rich regions from Chennai to Ho Chi Minh City closing gaps on Tokyo and Shanghai, their average working age of 32 contrasting North Asia's 50. Synergizing northern capital and tech with southern demographics demands streamlined education and transport, ensuring Asia modernizes the world before dividends fade.

Peace requires designing stability, not mere hope, amid flashpoints from Taiwan to Myanmar where planes, chips, and politics collide. Limjaroenrat prescribed guardrails—24-hour hotlines and de-escalation protocols—to halt accidents before incidents; rules clarifying gray-zone tactics like drones and cyber attacks via revised codes; and institutional rooms for rivals to step back without losing face. Current forums like the ASEAN Regional Forum host tensions but lack containment, underscoring Asia's neither-war-nor-peace limbo. In a era of rapid misjudgments, these mechanisms could weave permanence into peace.

The Q&A illuminated opportunities amid risks, with Ossa probing geopolitics and economics. Limjaroenrat saw more chances than threats for diversified middle powers, citing ASEAN's FDI surpassing China's and minilateral joins like India's Quad and RCEP roles. Tariffs breed volatility over magnitude—hoarding amid uncertainty disrupts chains more than 20% U.S. trade share suggests—yet case-by-case diversification, from Thai shrimp to Indonesian consumption, mitigates blows. Asia scales global solutions, from Chinese renewables to European rules, but must ascend value chains for homegrown fixes in life sciences and AI.

Democracy's backsliding via ASEAN dynasties—Marcos heirs, Jokowi proxies—treats governance as family business, ill-suited to volatile markets. China's influence looms through debt and industry, yet Limjaroenrat urged caution against backyard traps. Europe fits not as vacation satellite but vital partner: its regulatory superpower in carbon accounting and pharma complements Asia's speed, fostering diversified ties beyond U.S.-China binaries. As global growth's 52% surges from developing Asia, Limjaroenrat's call resonates—purpose in power, balance in progress, permanence in peace—for a connected, innovative, stable future.